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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

A Gift To All My Friends.........

With my googling power, I've come across a very interesting methodology in the FOREX trading. It is probably the oldest method of FOREX trading and is called PRICE ACTION approach.It is worth to give it a second look.I hope you'll find it useful. Happy trading!!!!
Price Action Trading Course by Nial Fuller

Monday, September 27, 2010

Forex Trader's Weekly Update (September 27 2010 to October 1 2010)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.3494 last week and the break of 1.3330 resistance confirms that whole rally from 1.1875 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen towards next target of 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.3286 support will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.3018/3158 support zone and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2587 support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.

In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Forex Trader's Weekly Update (September 20 2010 to September 24 2010)

EUR/USD


EUR/USD's rally extended further to as high as 1.3158 last week before making a temporary top and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway trading first. Note that the strong break of 1.2916 resistance suggests that whole pull back from 1.3330 is finished at 1.2587 already. We'd expect retreat from 1.3158 to be contained by 1.2916 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.3158 will target 1.3330 and above. However, note that break of 1.2916 will dampen this case and turn focus back to 1.2587/2643 support zone instead.



In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment and we'll stay neutral first. Question remains on whether medium term correction from 1.6039 is completed to 1.1875 and we have no confirmation yet. On the upside, break of 1.3330 resistance will indicate that rebound from 1.1875 has resumed and thus favor the case that EUR/USD has bottomed out. In such case, further rise should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600). On the downside, though, break of 1.2587 support will indicate that fall from 1.5143 is still in progress for a test on 1.1639 key support. We'll see which side EUR/USD will take out before solidifying the outlook.



In the long term picture, the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Forex Trader's Weekly Update (September 13 2010 to September 17 2010)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD's recovery extends further to as high as 1.2896 last week but is still limited below mentioned 1.2921 resistance. Considering that it's near to this resistance, we'll stay neutral initially this week. As long as 1.2921 resistance holds, we'd still expect fall from 1.3330 to resume sooner or later. Below 1.2776 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.


In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will lead to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).


In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Forex Trader's Weekly Update (September 6 2010 to September 10 2010)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD's recovery extend further to as high as 1.2896 last week but is still limited below mentioned 1.2921 resistance. Considering that it's near to this resistance, we'll stay neutral initially this week. As long as 1.2921 resistance holds, we'd still expect fall from 1.3330 to resume sooner or later. Below 1.2776 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.


In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will lead to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).


In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.