EUR/USD
EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.4150 extended further last week and such consolidations would likely continue further in near term. Below 1.3697 minor support will bring another fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.2587 to 1.4150 at 1.3553 and possibly below. On the upside, though, break of 1.4150 resistance will confirm that recent rally has resumed and should target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4550 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3330 resistance turned support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4572) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039. Though, break of 1.3330 will argue that whole rebound from 1.1875. This will also dampen this mentioned case and turn outlook bearish instead.
In the long term picture, the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3917
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD dropped sharply to as low as 1.5649 last week and the development suggests that rise from 1.5296 is finished. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. whole rally from 1.4230 might be finished too. In any case, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.5877 resistance holds. Break of 1.5649 will target a test on 1.5296 support first. Though, above 1.5877 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6105 first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Current rise from 1.4230 could extend to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5752
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9462 extended further to as high as 0.9803 last week. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, a short term bottom should be in place and strong rise is now is favor to 0.9932/1.0181 resistance zone in near term, with 55 days EMA (now at 0.9978). On the downside, below 0.9571 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9462. Nevertheless, decisive break there is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, the sustained break of 0.9634 low indicates that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. While USD/CHF has made a short term bottom at 0.9462, there is no indication of medium term reversal yet. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0330 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 1.1729 to 0.9462 at 1.0328). The long term down trend is still in favor to continue towards 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9724
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY edged lower to 80.83 last week but lacked follow through selling and recovered. In any case, outlook remains bearish as long as 81.91 resistance holds and we'd expect recent decline to resume sooner or later. Below 80.83 will target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. However, break of 81.91 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound towards 83.15/83.97 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, whole decline from 124.13 is still in progress and should now target 1995 low of 79.75. Also, considering that monthly MACD has crossed below signal line again, suggesting that USD/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum. 79.75 low would probably be taken out. Though, note that Japan could intervene any time to slow USD/JPY's fall and hence, the path would likely be very choppy. In any case, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming while break of 94.97 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 81.34
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY dived to as low as 111.55 last week but was supported above 111.44 support and recovered. At this point, there is no confirmation of short term reversal yet and EUR/JPY's rise from 105.42 could still continue. Above 113.92 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 115.65. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32. However, break of 111.44 will argue that whole rebound from 105.42 might be over and deeper fall should be seen t retest 105.42 low.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is still in favor to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 119.21). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 113.12
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9979 extended further to as high as 1.0371 last week before turning sideway. The development indicates that whole fall from 1.0671has completed. Hence, further rise is now in favor after finishing the consolidation from 1.0371. Above will target a test on 1.0671/5 resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.0167 will bring deeper pull back towards 0.9979 low. But we'd still anticipate strong support from parity to contain downside.
In the bigger picture, USD/CAD did get strong support from parity as we expected and the development reaffirms our view that price actions from 1.0851 are just consolidation to rise from 2007 low of 0.9056 only. Break of 1.0671 resistance will indicate that such rebound from 0.9056 is resuming for another high above 1.0851. On the downside, though, break of 0.9979 will invalidate this view and target a test on 0.9056 instead.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0253
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD continued to consolidate below 0.9998 last week and such consolidation would likely extend further this week. Below 0.9661 will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8770 to 0.9998 at 0.9529 and below. On the upside, break of parity is needed to confirm rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will remain mildly on the downside.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress and has resumed the longer term up trend. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9220 resistance turned support holds. Current rally should extend towards 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 should have resumed. We're now looking at next long term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9827
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Trading Psycology - Entry & Exit
One of the major problems faced by people who enter into trading and which they continue to face till they become professional traders is the difficulty that they face in choosing the right moment to enter and exit trades. I am no exception and i have faced the same situation when i started out trading and it took me close to 4-5 yrs to get to the right moment to enter/exit trades.
The trick behind entering any good trade is to cut out the emotion behind the entry. Normally what we do is that we see price rising and immediately, we are tempted into entering a long. The temptation is too strong. Guess what !! Thats exactly what the pros want you to do. Give in to emotions, give in to your temptations. They want you to trade emotionally. And the trick to be a successful trader is to do the opposite of what the pros want you to do. Why ? Cos thats what they do. They never enter on seeing rising prices.
Trading, as such, is very easy. All you need to do is to open a 1H or 4H or daily chart and you can easily see places where prices had reversed earlier and or had been well supported. All that you have to do is wait for price to reach such areas and take the trades accordingly. Its so easy on the face of it. But why do all of us struggle in doing this simple thing ? Its because of our emotions and our lack of discipline. We see a previous resistance being broken and price running up and we immediately jump into the bandwagon without noticing the simple logic that any good break will almost always be followed by a retracement back into the resistance region. We see price running up 50 pips after the break and we enter there and when there is a retrace back into the resistance region, we are down 50 pips, we get too scared and we close to escape more drawdown. Wat happens? Price simply moves up again to where we thought it would.
The key to successful trading is to control your emotions and have discipline. Wait for good entries, they are always there and will always be there. All you need to do is wait. Have patience, have discipline. You will succeed.
The trick behind entering any good trade is to cut out the emotion behind the entry. Normally what we do is that we see price rising and immediately, we are tempted into entering a long. The temptation is too strong. Guess what !! Thats exactly what the pros want you to do. Give in to emotions, give in to your temptations. They want you to trade emotionally. And the trick to be a successful trader is to do the opposite of what the pros want you to do. Why ? Cos thats what they do. They never enter on seeing rising prices.
Trading, as such, is very easy. All you need to do is to open a 1H or 4H or daily chart and you can easily see places where prices had reversed earlier and or had been well supported. All that you have to do is wait for price to reach such areas and take the trades accordingly. Its so easy on the face of it. But why do all of us struggle in doing this simple thing ? Its because of our emotions and our lack of discipline. We see a previous resistance being broken and price running up and we immediately jump into the bandwagon without noticing the simple logic that any good break will almost always be followed by a retracement back into the resistance region. We see price running up 50 pips after the break and we enter there and when there is a retrace back into the resistance region, we are down 50 pips, we get too scared and we close to escape more drawdown. Wat happens? Price simply moves up again to where we thought it would.
The key to successful trading is to control your emotions and have discipline. Wait for good entries, they are always there and will always be there. All you need to do is wait. Have patience, have discipline. You will succeed.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Forex Trader's Weekly Update (October 18 2010 to October 22 2010)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD rose further to as high as 1.4150 last week but lost upside momentum. A short term top might be in place and initial bias is cautiously on the downside for deeper treat to 1.3775 support and below. Though, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2587 to 1.4150 at 1.3553 to contain downside and bring another rise. Above 1.4150 will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4572 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3330 resistance turned support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4572) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3958
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD's rise from 1.5296 resumed last week and rose to 1.6104 so far. Upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. But after all, as long as 1.5754 support holds. Further rally is still expected. Current rise should target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.5997 from 1.5296 at 1.6388 next. Though, break of 1.5754 support will indicate that rise from 1.5296 is over and turn focus back to this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Current rise from 1.4230 could extend to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5961
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF's decline extended further last week and reached as low as 0.9462 before making a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9727 resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to continue. Below 0.9462 will target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. However, break of 0.9727 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring stronger rebound to 0.9932 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, the sustained break of 0.9634 low indicates that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Medium term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 1.0330/0624 resistance zone holds. We'd expect further decline towards 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9591
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY's down trend continued last week and dropped further to as low as 80.88 before making a temporary low there. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway consolidation first. But upside should be limited by 82.33 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.88 will target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. However, break of 82.33 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound towards 83.15/83.97 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, whole decline from 124.13 is still in progress and should now target 1995 low of 79.75. Also, considering that monthly MACD has crossed below signal line again, suggesting that USD/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum. 79.75 low would probably be taken out. Though, note that Japan could intervene any time to slow of USD/JPY's fall and hence, the path would likely be very choppy. In any case, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming while break of 94.97 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 81.46
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY continued to engage in consolidation below 115.65 short term top last week and outlook remains unchanged. Another might be seen as such consolidations continue but downside is expected to be contained by 111.44 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 115.65 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next. However, break of 111.44 will argue that whole rebound from 105.42 might be over and turn focus back to this low instead.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 119.43). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 113.63
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD dived further to as low as 0.9979 last week but has somewhat drew strong support from parity and recovered. Also, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral first this week. Break of 1.0232 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.0671 has finished and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0675 resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9979 and sustained trading below parity will target a test on 0.9929 low next.
In the bigger picture, while we'd still prefer to see strong support around parity to finish off the fall from 1.0671 and consolidation from 1.0851. Break of 1.0232 resistance will reaffirm the view that 0.9929 is the medium term bottom and rise from there is not finished. Further break of 1.0671 should target another high above 1.0851. However, Sustained trading below parity will argue that 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and fall from 1.3063 could still be in progress for 2007 low of 0.9056. and fall from 1.3063 could still be in progress for 2007 low of 0.9056.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0108
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD rose further to as high as 0.9998 last week, just shy of parity, before making a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we might seen some sideway consolidations first. But after all, there is no sign of topping as long as 0.9768 support holds. Further rally is still expected to continue to 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021. Break will see further rise to medium term projection level at 1.0165. Though, break of 0.9768 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress and has resumed the longer term up trend. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9220 resistance turned support holds. Current rally should extend towards 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 should have resumed. We're not looking at next long term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9881
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
EUR/USD rose further to as high as 1.4150 last week but lost upside momentum. A short term top might be in place and initial bias is cautiously on the downside for deeper treat to 1.3775 support and below. Though, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2587 to 1.4150 at 1.3553 to contain downside and bring another rise. Above 1.4150 will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4572 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3330 resistance turned support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4572) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3958
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD's rise from 1.5296 resumed last week and rose to 1.6104 so far. Upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. But after all, as long as 1.5754 support holds. Further rally is still expected. Current rise should target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.5997 from 1.5296 at 1.6388 next. Though, break of 1.5754 support will indicate that rise from 1.5296 is over and turn focus back to this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Current rise from 1.4230 could extend to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5961
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF's decline extended further last week and reached as low as 0.9462 before making a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9727 resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to continue. Below 0.9462 will target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. However, break of 0.9727 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring stronger rebound to 0.9932 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, the sustained break of 0.9634 low indicates that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Medium term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 1.0330/0624 resistance zone holds. We'd expect further decline towards 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9591
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY's down trend continued last week and dropped further to as low as 80.88 before making a temporary low there. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway consolidation first. But upside should be limited by 82.33 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.88 will target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. However, break of 82.33 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound towards 83.15/83.97 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, whole decline from 124.13 is still in progress and should now target 1995 low of 79.75. Also, considering that monthly MACD has crossed below signal line again, suggesting that USD/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum. 79.75 low would probably be taken out. Though, note that Japan could intervene any time to slow of USD/JPY's fall and hence, the path would likely be very choppy. In any case, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming while break of 94.97 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 81.46
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY continued to engage in consolidation below 115.65 short term top last week and outlook remains unchanged. Another might be seen as such consolidations continue but downside is expected to be contained by 111.44 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 115.65 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next. However, break of 111.44 will argue that whole rebound from 105.42 might be over and turn focus back to this low instead.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 119.43). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 113.63
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD dived further to as low as 0.9979 last week but has somewhat drew strong support from parity and recovered. Also, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral first this week. Break of 1.0232 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.0671 has finished and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0675 resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9979 and sustained trading below parity will target a test on 0.9929 low next.
In the bigger picture, while we'd still prefer to see strong support around parity to finish off the fall from 1.0671 and consolidation from 1.0851. Break of 1.0232 resistance will reaffirm the view that 0.9929 is the medium term bottom and rise from there is not finished. Further break of 1.0671 should target another high above 1.0851. However, Sustained trading below parity will argue that 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and fall from 1.3063 could still be in progress for 2007 low of 0.9056. and fall from 1.3063 could still be in progress for 2007 low of 0.9056.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0108
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD rose further to as high as 0.9998 last week, just shy of parity, before making a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we might seen some sideway consolidations first. But after all, there is no sign of topping as long as 0.9768 support holds. Further rally is still expected to continue to 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021. Break will see further rise to medium term projection level at 1.0165. Though, break of 0.9768 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress and has resumed the longer term up trend. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9220 resistance turned support holds. Current rally should extend towards 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 should have resumed. We're not looking at next long term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9881
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
Monday, October 11, 2010
Forex Trader's Weekly Update (October 11 2010 to October 15 2010)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD soared to as high as 1.4028, just inch below mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4042. A temporary top is in place and initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first this week. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.3636 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4028 will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4585.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3330 resistance turned support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4585) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3914
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6016 last week and the break of 1.5997 did suggest that rise from 1.4230 is resuming. Nevertheless, upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. In any case, short term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.5668 support holds. Above 1.6016 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.5997 from 1.5296 at 1.6388 next. On the downside, break of 1.5668 will in turn indicate that rise from 1.5296 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Above 1.5996 will bring another rise to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5919
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9554 last week, breaking 2008 low of 0.9643 before turning sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations would be seen above 0.9554 first. But after all, upside should be limited below 0.9932 resistance and bring another fall. Below 0.9554 will target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, current development suggests that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Break of 0.9634 will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. On the upside, break of 1.0330/0624 resistance zone is needed to signal medium term reversal, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9646
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY broke intervention low of 82.86 to resume recent down trend and reached as low as 81.71 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 82.55 minor resistance intact. Current fall should now target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. On the upside, above 82.55 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 83.15 resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, the break of 82.86 support indicates that USD/JPY has not bottomed yet. Whole decline from 124.13 is still in progress and should now target 1995 low of 79.75. Also, considering that monthly MACD has crossed below signal line again, suggesting that USD/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum. 79.75 low would probably be taken out. Though, note that Japan could intervene any time to slow of USD/JPY's fall and hence, the path would likely be very choppy. In any case, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming while break of 94.97 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 82.24
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY edged higher to 115.65 last week but subsequent break of 113.74 minor support suggests that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral this week and retreat from 115.65 should extend further lower. Though, strong support is expected at 111.44 support to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 115.65 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 119.65). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 114.58
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD dived to as low as 1.0061 last week before making a temporary low there and turned sideway. With 1.0377 resistance intact, fall from 1.0675 is still expected to continue. Though, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.0377 will confirm that fall from 1.0671 is over and bring stronger rally towards 1.0675 resistance.
In the bigger picture, consolidations from 1.0851 is not finished yet with another falling leg in progress. At this moment, we'd still to expect strong support from parity to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 1.0675/0671 resistance zone will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 at least. However, sustained trading below parity will indicate 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and will turn focus back to this low.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0130
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD's strong rise and break of 0.9849 high confirms that long term up trend has resumed. Though, with a temporary top formed at 0.9915, initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading should be seen first. But downside is expected to be contained by 0.9541 support and bring another rise. Above 0.9915 will target parity and then 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress and has resumed the longer term up trend. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9220 resistance turned support holds. Current rally should extend towards 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 should have resumed. We're not looking at next long term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9812
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
EUR/USD soared to as high as 1.4028, just inch below mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4042. A temporary top is in place and initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first this week. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.3636 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4028 will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4585.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3330 resistance turned support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4585) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3914
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6016 last week and the break of 1.5997 did suggest that rise from 1.4230 is resuming. Nevertheless, upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. In any case, short term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.5668 support holds. Above 1.6016 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.5997 from 1.5296 at 1.6388 next. On the downside, break of 1.5668 will in turn indicate that rise from 1.5296 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Above 1.5996 will bring another rise to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5919
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9554 last week, breaking 2008 low of 0.9643 before turning sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations would be seen above 0.9554 first. But after all, upside should be limited below 0.9932 resistance and bring another fall. Below 0.9554 will target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, current development suggests that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Break of 0.9634 will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. On the upside, break of 1.0330/0624 resistance zone is needed to signal medium term reversal, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9646
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY broke intervention low of 82.86 to resume recent down trend and reached as low as 81.71 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 82.55 minor resistance intact. Current fall should now target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. On the upside, above 82.55 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 83.15 resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, the break of 82.86 support indicates that USD/JPY has not bottomed yet. Whole decline from 124.13 is still in progress and should now target 1995 low of 79.75. Also, considering that monthly MACD has crossed below signal line again, suggesting that USD/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum. 79.75 low would probably be taken out. Though, note that Japan could intervene any time to slow of USD/JPY's fall and hence, the path would likely be very choppy. In any case, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming while break of 94.97 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 82.24
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY edged higher to 115.65 last week but subsequent break of 113.74 minor support suggests that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral this week and retreat from 115.65 should extend further lower. Though, strong support is expected at 111.44 support to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 115.65 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 119.65). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 114.58
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD dived to as low as 1.0061 last week before making a temporary low there and turned sideway. With 1.0377 resistance intact, fall from 1.0675 is still expected to continue. Though, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.0377 will confirm that fall from 1.0671 is over and bring stronger rally towards 1.0675 resistance.
In the bigger picture, consolidations from 1.0851 is not finished yet with another falling leg in progress. At this moment, we'd still to expect strong support from parity to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 1.0675/0671 resistance zone will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 at least. However, sustained trading below parity will indicate 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and will turn focus back to this low.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0130
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD's strong rise and break of 0.9849 high confirms that long term up trend has resumed. Though, with a temporary top formed at 0.9915, initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading should be seen first. But downside is expected to be contained by 0.9541 support and bring another rise. Above 0.9915 will target parity and then 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress and has resumed the longer term up trend. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9220 resistance turned support holds. Current rally should extend towards 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 should have resumed. We're not looking at next long term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9812
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
Monday, October 4, 2010
Forex Trader's Weekly Update (October 4 2010 to October 8 2010)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD's up trend continued last week and rose further to as high as 1.3791. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.3626 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first. But in such case, we'd expect strong support from 1.3286 to contain downside and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3 psychological level holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3683
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.5921 last week but lacked follow through buying. Subsequent volatility mixed up the near term outlook and we'll stay neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.5921 will indicate that rise from 1.5296 is still in progress for 1.5997 high. On the downside, below 1.5668 will flip intraday bias to the downside. Further break of 1.5503 support will confirm that rebound from 1.5296 has completed and turn focus back to this support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Above 1.5996 will bring another rise to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5807
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF dropped further to as low as 0.9707 last week before making a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations could still be seen. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 1.0108 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.9707 will target 0.9634 low next.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, current development suggests that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Break of 0.9634 will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. On the upside, break of 1.0330/0624 resistance zone is needed to signal medium term reversal, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, USD/CHF continued to trade below a falling 55 months EMA. Even though it kept losing downside momentum as seen in bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, there is no indication of reversal. Whole down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress for another low below 0.9634.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9773
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY's fall from 85.92 extended further to as low as 83.15 last week but started to lose some downside momentum. While further decline cannot be ruled out, we'd maintain that considering risk of further intervention, strong support should be seen at around 83 level to contain downside. On the upside, above 83.92 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for upper side of recent range of 82.86/85.92. However, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to confirm that rebound from 82.86 has resumed. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first.
In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, fall from 94.97 might have made a medium term low at 82.86. Though, we'd prefer to see decisive break of 85.89 resistance before confirming. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 55 weeks EMA (now at 89.77) and above. On the downside, break of 82.86 support is needed to confirm down trend resumption to 79.75 low. But even in case, we'll be cautiously looking for more sign of loss of momentum in case of further decline.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY 's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. However, we'd be cautious on any sign of loss of momentum and reversal on next fall. Break of 94.97 resistance will now be an important signal of trend reversal.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 83.55
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY's rally continued further to as high as 114.79 last week and met mentioned target of 114.72 resistance. While EUR/JPY has been losing some upside momentum, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and sustained trading above 114.72 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next. On the downside, break of 112.96 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations first. But downside should be contained above 109.54 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 120.33). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 114.31
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD's break of 1.0190 support on Friday suggests that fall from 1.0671 has finally resumed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.0106 support next. But still, we'd continue to expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0230 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.0377 is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside.
In the bigger picture, consolidations from 1.0851 is still in progress and rebound from 0.9929 is not ready to resume yet. But in any case, we'd continue to expect strong support from parity to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 1.0675/0671 resistance zone will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 at least, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement of 1.1866. However, sustained trading below parity will indicate 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and will turn focus back to this low.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0234
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD climbed further to as high as 0.9749 last week even though it continued to lose some near term upside momentum. In any case, further rally is still expected as long as 0.9461 support holds and current rise is expected to extend further to 0.9849 high next. Break of 0.9461 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8770 support holds and further rise should be seen to 0.9849 high first. Break there will confirm that the long term up trend has also resumed and should then target 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next. On the downside, though, note that break of 0.8770 will indicate that rise from 0.8066 is finished and turn focus back to this key support instead.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849. Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9684
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
EUR/USD's up trend continued last week and rose further to as high as 1.3791. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.3626 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first. But in such case, we'd expect strong support from 1.3286 to contain downside and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3 psychological level holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3683
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.5921 last week but lacked follow through buying. Subsequent volatility mixed up the near term outlook and we'll stay neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.5921 will indicate that rise from 1.5296 is still in progress for 1.5997 high. On the downside, below 1.5668 will flip intraday bias to the downside. Further break of 1.5503 support will confirm that rebound from 1.5296 has completed and turn focus back to this support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Above 1.5996 will bring another rise to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5807
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF dropped further to as low as 0.9707 last week before making a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations could still be seen. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited below 1.0108 resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.9707 will target 0.9634 low next.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, current development suggests that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Break of 0.9634 will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. On the upside, break of 1.0330/0624 resistance zone is needed to signal medium term reversal, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, USD/CHF continued to trade below a falling 55 months EMA. Even though it kept losing downside momentum as seen in bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD, there is no indication of reversal. Whole down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress for another low below 0.9634.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9773
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY's fall from 85.92 extended further to as low as 83.15 last week but started to lose some downside momentum. While further decline cannot be ruled out, we'd maintain that considering risk of further intervention, strong support should be seen at around 83 level to contain downside. On the upside, above 83.92 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for upper side of recent range of 82.86/85.92. However, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to confirm that rebound from 82.86 has resumed. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first.
In the bigger picture, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, fall from 94.97 might have made a medium term low at 82.86. Though, we'd prefer to see decisive break of 85.89 resistance before confirming. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 55 weeks EMA (now at 89.77) and above. On the downside, break of 82.86 support is needed to confirm down trend resumption to 79.75 low. But even in case, we'll be cautiously looking for more sign of loss of momentum in case of further decline.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY 's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. However, we'd be cautious on any sign of loss of momentum and reversal on next fall. Break of 94.97 resistance will now be an important signal of trend reversal.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 83.55
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY's rally continued further to as high as 114.79 last week and met mentioned target of 114.72 resistance. While EUR/JPY has been losing some upside momentum, there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and sustained trading above 114.72 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next. On the downside, break of 112.96 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations first. But downside should be contained above 109.54 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 120.33). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 114.31
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD's break of 1.0190 support on Friday suggests that fall from 1.0671 has finally resumed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.0106 support next. But still, we'd continue to expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0230 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.0377 is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside.
In the bigger picture, consolidations from 1.0851 is still in progress and rebound from 0.9929 is not ready to resume yet. But in any case, we'd continue to expect strong support from parity to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 1.0675/0671 resistance zone will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 at least, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement of 1.1866. However, sustained trading below parity will indicate 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and will turn focus back to this low.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0234
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD climbed further to as high as 0.9749 last week even though it continued to lose some near term upside momentum. In any case, further rally is still expected as long as 0.9461 support holds and current rise is expected to extend further to 0.9849 high next. Break of 0.9461 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8770 support holds and further rise should be seen to 0.9849 high first. Break there will confirm that the long term up trend has also resumed and should then target 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next. On the downside, though, note that break of 0.8770 will indicate that rise from 0.8066 is finished and turn focus back to this key support instead.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above 76.4% retracement of 0.4773 to 0.9849. Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new up trend which extend the long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 0.9849 high.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9684
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
Saturday, October 2, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
A Gift To All My Friends.........
With my googling power, I've come across a very interesting methodology in the FOREX trading. It is probably the oldest method of FOREX trading and is called PRICE ACTION approach.It is worth to give it a second look.I hope you'll find it useful. Happy trading!!!!
Price Action Trading Course by Nial Fuller
Price Action Trading Course by Nial Fuller
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
