EUR/USD
EUR/USD rose to as high as 1.3494 last week and the break of 1.3330 resistance confirms that whole rally from 1.1875 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen towards next target of 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.3286 support will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.3018/3158 support zone and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2587 support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
Forex Trader's Weekly Update (September 20 2010 to September 24 2010)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD's rally extended further to as high as 1.3158 last week before making a temporary top and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway trading first. Note that the strong break of 1.2916 resistance suggests that whole pull back from 1.3330 is finished at 1.2587 already. We'd expect retreat from 1.3158 to be contained by 1.2916 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.3158 will target 1.3330 and above. However, note that break of 1.2916 will dampen this case and turn focus back to 1.2587/2643 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment and we'll stay neutral first. Question remains on whether medium term correction from 1.6039 is completed to 1.1875 and we have no confirmation yet. On the upside, break of 1.3330 resistance will indicate that rebound from 1.1875 has resumed and thus favor the case that EUR/USD has bottomed out. In such case, further rise should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600). On the downside, though, break of 1.2587 support will indicate that fall from 1.5143 is still in progress for a test on 1.1639 key support. We'll see which side EUR/USD will take out before solidifying the outlook.
In the long term picture, the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend.
EUR/USD's rally extended further to as high as 1.3158 last week before making a temporary top and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway trading first. Note that the strong break of 1.2916 resistance suggests that whole pull back from 1.3330 is finished at 1.2587 already. We'd expect retreat from 1.3158 to be contained by 1.2916 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 1.3158 will target 1.3330 and above. However, note that break of 1.2916 will dampen this case and turn focus back to 1.2587/2643 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, outlook is rather mixed for the moment and we'll stay neutral first. Question remains on whether medium term correction from 1.6039 is completed to 1.1875 and we have no confirmation yet. On the upside, break of 1.3330 resistance will indicate that rebound from 1.1875 has resumed and thus favor the case that EUR/USD has bottomed out. In such case, further rise should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600). On the downside, though, break of 1.2587 support will indicate that fall from 1.5143 is still in progress for a test on 1.1639 key support. We'll see which side EUR/USD will take out before solidifying the outlook.
In the long term picture, the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Forex Trader's Weekly Update (September 13 2010 to September 17 2010)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD's recovery extends further to as high as 1.2896 last week but is still limited below mentioned 1.2921 resistance. Considering that it's near to this resistance, we'll stay neutral initially this week. As long as 1.2921 resistance holds, we'd still expect fall from 1.3330 to resume sooner or later. Below 1.2776 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will lead to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
EUR/USD's recovery extends further to as high as 1.2896 last week but is still limited below mentioned 1.2921 resistance. Considering that it's near to this resistance, we'll stay neutral initially this week. As long as 1.2921 resistance holds, we'd still expect fall from 1.3330 to resume sooner or later. Below 1.2776 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will lead to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Forex Trader's Weekly Update (September 6 2010 to September 10 2010)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD's recovery extend further to as high as 1.2896 last week but is still limited below mentioned 1.2921 resistance. Considering that it's near to this resistance, we'll stay neutral initially this week. As long as 1.2921 resistance holds, we'd still expect fall from 1.3330 to resume sooner or later. Below 1.2776 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will lead to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
EUR/USD's recovery extend further to as high as 1.2896 last week but is still limited below mentioned 1.2921 resistance. Considering that it's near to this resistance, we'll stay neutral initially this week. As long as 1.2921 resistance holds, we'd still expect fall from 1.3330 to resume sooner or later. Below 1.2776 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will lead to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Forex Trader's Weekly Update (August 30 2010 to September 3 2010)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD dropped further to 1.2587 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations would be seen first. But upside should be limited by 1.2910 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. Sustained trading below there will argue that medium term decline is likely resuming for another low below 1.1875. However, break of 1.2921 will argue that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3385) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will pave the way to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4699).
In the long term picture, the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
EUR/USD dropped further to 1.2587 but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations would be seen first. But upside should be limited by 1.2910 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. Sustained trading below there will argue that medium term decline is likely resuming for another low below 1.1875. However, break of 1.2921 will argue that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3385) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will pave the way to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4699).
In the long term picture, the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
Monday, August 23, 2010
3 Golden Ways To Approach News Events In Forex Trading
Recently, there are a few emails asking me how do we trade news when we do not even know what’s the outcome of the news releases/fundamental reports. It’s not only just that, how are we going to handle different sources of potentially high impact news and reports that are going to hit the forex market. So below I’m going to share on how to handle those in forex trading.
I understand how frustrating it can be when there a constant stream of data/fundamental reports that is releasing every now and then, and it may hinder your decisions for your trading. Forex traders seemingly have loads of stuffs to keep track before executing their trades like countries’ economic data, who is going to speak that will affect the market etc.
Well, I’m going to give you an example here. A stock trader only has to worry about the earnings reports of a certain company, but whereas retail sales reports may be useless to them. For a forex trader, he has to worry much about interest rate change, employment and unemployment figures and some other stuffs but do not really have to worry on what the president of European Central Bank (ECB) have to say. It is possible to narrow down on the items that will have an impact on the forex market that you trade because you can choose the calendar events that that you need to focus on for a certain currency pair. You can refer to a very popular news calendar in forexfactory.com. If you are trading USD pairs, then you should look out for any orange or red coded USD news as it will affect your trade. Below are the 3 ways to approach news events.
1) Predict ahead of the news releases, speech etc. and get into position.
No one can predict where the forex market can go and what the news releases may be. So this is definitely gambling to me and I’ll never recommend this to anyone if you want to trade forex the right way.
2) Avoid the news event by waiting and not trading.
This is the best forex strategy for me when I’m a short term trader. When there is a news events coming up, I will not trade 2 to 3 hours before the news are released, this is to keep me out from unexpected results and choppy markets. Sometimes the market will be very volatile and it can only be challenging but NOT profitable for most traders. So it’s better we stay out of the unpredictable and see how the market moves after that.
3) Trading in a timeframe where intraday swings do not have much impact.
This applies to traders who are not using intraday as their strategy. Instead, they are using short swings and long swings as their trading strategy. The approach here is that when you use swing trading strategy, you will have larger stop loss and these kind of intraday swings are just small fluctuations. But of course, you have to be able to take huge stop loss and your forex trading system must be proven to be able to take in these small swings. If your system can do that, it means the news releases are already factored into your trading system.
I understand how frustrating it can be when there a constant stream of data/fundamental reports that is releasing every now and then, and it may hinder your decisions for your trading. Forex traders seemingly have loads of stuffs to keep track before executing their trades like countries’ economic data, who is going to speak that will affect the market etc.
Well, I’m going to give you an example here. A stock trader only has to worry about the earnings reports of a certain company, but whereas retail sales reports may be useless to them. For a forex trader, he has to worry much about interest rate change, employment and unemployment figures and some other stuffs but do not really have to worry on what the president of European Central Bank (ECB) have to say. It is possible to narrow down on the items that will have an impact on the forex market that you trade because you can choose the calendar events that that you need to focus on for a certain currency pair. You can refer to a very popular news calendar in forexfactory.com. If you are trading USD pairs, then you should look out for any orange or red coded USD news as it will affect your trade. Below are the 3 ways to approach news events.
1) Predict ahead of the news releases, speech etc. and get into position.
No one can predict where the forex market can go and what the news releases may be. So this is definitely gambling to me and I’ll never recommend this to anyone if you want to trade forex the right way.
2) Avoid the news event by waiting and not trading.
This is the best forex strategy for me when I’m a short term trader. When there is a news events coming up, I will not trade 2 to 3 hours before the news are released, this is to keep me out from unexpected results and choppy markets. Sometimes the market will be very volatile and it can only be challenging but NOT profitable for most traders. So it’s better we stay out of the unpredictable and see how the market moves after that.
3) Trading in a timeframe where intraday swings do not have much impact.
This applies to traders who are not using intraday as their strategy. Instead, they are using short swings and long swings as their trading strategy. The approach here is that when you use swing trading strategy, you will have larger stop loss and these kind of intraday swings are just small fluctuations. But of course, you have to be able to take huge stop loss and your forex trading system must be proven to be able to take in these small swings. If your system can do that, it means the news releases are already factored into your trading system.
Do Not Trade Forex Until You Read These!
I found this interesting article by a fellow professional forex trader Walter Peters that talks about the 3 Trading Weaknesses and How to Overcome Them:
Do you know what your biases are? Where are your trading weak spots? Where do you let the pips slip from your grasp?
Trading is like any other skill. Profitable trading, like bowling, cooking, planting a tree or driving a motorcycle, can be learned - by anyone. That means you too.
If you would like to become a profitable forex trader, or simply make more pips trading, find out what your weak spots are, and then work on them.
Some common weak spots are:
# 1. Trading too often.
How many times have you had a profitable week, only to give it all back at the end of the week on a few silly trades? (You wouldn’t believe how profitable most traders could be if they simply learned to wait for the ideal trade setups.)
The other common problem with frequent trading is that many traders get into revenge mode. Many traders may try to “get their money back” from a market that handed them their most recent loss. Sometimes a little perspective is all that is needed to see the markets more clearly. By sitting in the bushes until the “free money” is lying there you force yourself to become a more disciplined trader.
Recall the last time you took a trade that was an ideal setup. Remember the feeling you had – knowing that the trade had an unbelievable success rate. You probably had very little doubt that it would work out. Now, consider this: what if EVERY trade you took felt like that. This is what patience can do for you. If you learn to sit and wait for the very best trades, not only can trading become very fun, but it can become extremely profitable.
# 2. Finding it difficult to re-enter a trade.
If you find that you are often stopped out on a trade, but the trade eventually goes in the expected direction without you, you may want to work on this skill. Learning to re-enter is tricky because it may lead to overtrading, but it is invaluable in making sure that you eventually collect your profits - especially for traders who trade lower timeframe (5 minute, 10 minute, etc) charts.
Deciding to re-enter a trade is a difficult decision because you are admitting that you were wrong. By re-entering the trade you have decided that the original timing of the trade was off, and that now is the better time to get into the market.
Note that this is very different from pyramiding, or scaling into a position. A re-entry is a trade that is taken after the first trade did not go well and you have exited this original position.When pyramiding, or scaling into a position you are still holding on to your original position.
# 3. Inconsistent risk management.
If you vary your risk from trade to trade, then you may get some value from learning a risk management “trading ritual.” What I mean by this is that you go through specific steps (for example, with a spreadsheet or calculator) to determine what % of your account is at risk on the next trade. If your money management strategy is to vary the risk on each trade, that is fine, but this ritual will really help you because you will know precisely how much is at risk on each trade. This way you are more likely to stick to your plan and exit the trade if the trade goes against you. This will also help you to avoid the painful exit from the trade simply because the trade has gone against you too much - by defining your risk beforehand you are more likely to be able to sleep (if you trade longer term charts) and less likely to exit before your stop is hit because you cannot handle the excessive drawdown.
Trading is simply like learning to ride a bike or drive a car, it is a skill that anyone can learn. Some people will tell you otherwise, that only talented people who are “born to trade” can extract profits from the markets. Trading doesn’t take extreme intelligence or any superhuman gifts, it simply is hard work, just like learning to drive a car.
Walter Peters, PhD is a professional forex trader and money manager for a private forex fund. In addition, Walter is the co-founder of Fxjake.com, a resource for forex traders. Walter loves to hear from other traders, he can be reached by email at walter@fxjake.com.
Do you know what your biases are? Where are your trading weak spots? Where do you let the pips slip from your grasp?
Trading is like any other skill. Profitable trading, like bowling, cooking, planting a tree or driving a motorcycle, can be learned - by anyone. That means you too.
If you would like to become a profitable forex trader, or simply make more pips trading, find out what your weak spots are, and then work on them.
Some common weak spots are:
# 1. Trading too often.
How many times have you had a profitable week, only to give it all back at the end of the week on a few silly trades? (You wouldn’t believe how profitable most traders could be if they simply learned to wait for the ideal trade setups.)
The other common problem with frequent trading is that many traders get into revenge mode. Many traders may try to “get their money back” from a market that handed them their most recent loss. Sometimes a little perspective is all that is needed to see the markets more clearly. By sitting in the bushes until the “free money” is lying there you force yourself to become a more disciplined trader.
Recall the last time you took a trade that was an ideal setup. Remember the feeling you had – knowing that the trade had an unbelievable success rate. You probably had very little doubt that it would work out. Now, consider this: what if EVERY trade you took felt like that. This is what patience can do for you. If you learn to sit and wait for the very best trades, not only can trading become very fun, but it can become extremely profitable.
# 2. Finding it difficult to re-enter a trade.
If you find that you are often stopped out on a trade, but the trade eventually goes in the expected direction without you, you may want to work on this skill. Learning to re-enter is tricky because it may lead to overtrading, but it is invaluable in making sure that you eventually collect your profits - especially for traders who trade lower timeframe (5 minute, 10 minute, etc) charts.
Deciding to re-enter a trade is a difficult decision because you are admitting that you were wrong. By re-entering the trade you have decided that the original timing of the trade was off, and that now is the better time to get into the market.
Note that this is very different from pyramiding, or scaling into a position. A re-entry is a trade that is taken after the first trade did not go well and you have exited this original position.When pyramiding, or scaling into a position you are still holding on to your original position.
# 3. Inconsistent risk management.
If you vary your risk from trade to trade, then you may get some value from learning a risk management “trading ritual.” What I mean by this is that you go through specific steps (for example, with a spreadsheet or calculator) to determine what % of your account is at risk on the next trade. If your money management strategy is to vary the risk on each trade, that is fine, but this ritual will really help you because you will know precisely how much is at risk on each trade. This way you are more likely to stick to your plan and exit the trade if the trade goes against you. This will also help you to avoid the painful exit from the trade simply because the trade has gone against you too much - by defining your risk beforehand you are more likely to be able to sleep (if you trade longer term charts) and less likely to exit before your stop is hit because you cannot handle the excessive drawdown.
Trading is simply like learning to ride a bike or drive a car, it is a skill that anyone can learn. Some people will tell you otherwise, that only talented people who are “born to trade” can extract profits from the markets. Trading doesn’t take extreme intelligence or any superhuman gifts, it simply is hard work, just like learning to drive a car.
Walter Peters, PhD is a professional forex trader and money manager for a private forex fund. In addition, Walter is the co-founder of Fxjake.com, a resource for forex traders. Walter loves to hear from other traders, he can be reached by email at walter@fxjake.com.
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