EUR/USD
EUR/USD's recovery extends further to as high as 1.2896 last week but is still limited below mentioned 1.2921 resistance. Considering that it's near to this resistance, we'll stay neutral initially this week. As long as 1.2921 resistance holds, we'd still expect fall from 1.3330 to resume sooner or later. Below 1.2776 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 1.2587 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.
In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will lead to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209 and 1.1639 support to contain downside and bring another long term up trend. However, note that sustained break of 1.1209 key Fibonacci level will dampen this view and open up the case of a take on parity.
