EUR/USD
EUR/USD soared to as high as 1.4028, just inch below mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4042. A temporary top is in place and initial bias is neutral for some consolidations first this week. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.3636 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4028 will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4585.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3330 resistance turned support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4585) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3914
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6016 last week and the break of 1.5997 did suggest that rise from 1.4230 is resuming. Nevertheless, upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. In any case, short term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.5668 support holds. Above 1.6016 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.5997 from 1.5296 at 1.6388 next. On the downside, break of 1.5668 will in turn indicate that rise from 1.5296 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Above 1.5996 will bring another rise to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5919
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF dropped to as low as 0.9554 last week, breaking 2008 low of 0.9643 before turning sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations would be seen above 0.9554 first. But after all, upside should be limited below 0.9932 resistance and bring another fall. Below 0.9554 will target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, current development suggests that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Break of 0.9634 will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. On the upside, break of 1.0330/0624 resistance zone is needed to signal medium term reversal, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9646
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY broke intervention low of 82.86 to resume recent down trend and reached as low as 81.71 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with 82.55 minor resistance intact. Current fall should now target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. On the upside, above 82.55 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 83.15 resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, the break of 82.86 support indicates that USD/JPY has not bottomed yet. Whole decline from 124.13 is still in progress and should now target 1995 low of 79.75. Also, considering that monthly MACD has crossed below signal line again, suggesting that USD/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum. 79.75 low would probably be taken out. Though, note that Japan could intervene any time to slow of USD/JPY's fall and hence, the path would likely be very choppy. In any case, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming while break of 94.97 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 82.24
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY edged higher to 115.65 last week but subsequent break of 113.74 minor support suggests that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral this week and retreat from 115.65 should extend further lower. Though, strong support is expected at 111.44 support to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 115.65 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 119.65). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 114.58
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD dived to as low as 1.0061 last week before making a temporary low there and turned sideway. With 1.0377 resistance intact, fall from 1.0675 is still expected to continue. Though, in case of another fall, we'd continue to expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.0377 will confirm that fall from 1.0671 is over and bring stronger rally towards 1.0675 resistance.
In the bigger picture, consolidations from 1.0851 is not finished yet with another falling leg in progress. At this moment, we'd still to expect strong support from parity to contain downside and finally bring rally resumption. Above 1.0675/0671 resistance zone will target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 at least. However, sustained trading below parity will indicate 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and will turn focus back to this low.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0130
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD's strong rise and break of 0.9849 high confirms that long term up trend has resumed. Though, with a temporary top formed at 0.9915, initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading should be seen first. But downside is expected to be contained by 0.9541 support and bring another rise. Above 0.9915 will target parity and then 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress and has resumed the longer term up trend. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9220 resistance turned support holds. Current rally should extend towards 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 should have resumed. We're not looking at next long term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9812
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
