EUR/USD
EUR/USD rose further to as high as 1.4150 last week but lost upside momentum. A short term top might be in place and initial bias is cautiously on the downside for deeper treat to 1.3775 support and below. Though, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2587 to 1.4150 at 1.3553 to contain downside and bring another rise. Above 1.4150 will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4572 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 is a correction to long term rally from 0.8223 and could have finished down to 1.1875 already. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3330 resistance turned support holds and further rally should be seen to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4572) next. Break there will target a new high above 1.6039.
In the long term picture, considering the long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 to 2008 high of 1.6039, price actions from 1.6039 are viewed as a correction only. Hence, we'd expect another high above 1.6039 eventually, after correction from 1.6039 is confirmed to be finished.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.3958
Historical Levels up to date: 1.4865, 1.4675, 1.4420, 1.4090, 1.3840, 1.3600
GBP/USD
GBP/USD's rise from 1.5296 resumed last week and rose to 1.6104 so far. Upside momentum remains a bit unconvincing. But after all, as long as 1.5754 support holds. Further rally is still expected. Current rise should target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.5997 from 1.5296 at 1.6388 next. Though, break of 1.5754 support will indicate that rise from 1.5296 is over and turn focus back to this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are viewed as consolidation to fall from 2.1161 only with rise from 1.4230 as the third leg. There is no clear indication that such consolidation is finished. Current rise from 1.4230 could extend to 1.7043 resistance and above. However, we'd expect strong resistance between 1.7043 and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 and finally bring long term down trend resumption. In any case, a break of 1.4230 support will indicate that the consolidation is completed and down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for another low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after rebound from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.5961
Historical Levels up to date: 1.9445, 1.8490, 1.7520, 1.6570, 1.6255, 1.5675
USD/CHF
USD/CHF's decline extended further last week and reached as low as 0.9462 before making a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9727 resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to continue. Below 0.9462 will target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. However, break of 0.9727 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and bring stronger rebound to 0.9932 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, the sustained break of 0.9634 low indicates that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is resuming. Medium term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 1.0330/0624 resistance zone holds. We'd expect further decline towards 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
In the longer term picture, the break of 0.9634 confirms that long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 has resumed. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But after all, USD/CHF should be resuming the set of impulsive fall from 1.8305 to 1.1288. Hence, we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946, which is close to 0.9 psychological level.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9591
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9880, 1.0685, 1.0830, 1.0875, 1.1000, 1.1175
USD/JPY
USD/JPY's down trend continued last week and dropped further to as low as 80.88 before making a temporary low there. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway consolidation first. But upside should be limited by 82.33 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 80.88 will target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. However, break of 82.33 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound towards 83.15/83.97 resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, whole decline from 124.13 is still in progress and should now target 1995 low of 79.75. Also, considering that monthly MACD has crossed below signal line again, suggesting that USD/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum. 79.75 low would probably be taken out. Though, note that Japan could intervene any time to slow of USD/JPY's fall and hence, the path would likely be very choppy. In any case, break of 85.92 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming while break of 94.97 is needed to confirm reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 81.46
Historical Levels up to date: 93.50, 95.75, 98.00, 99.70, 101.35, 101.70, 103.00, 104.95, 105.50, 106.30, 107.20, 110.50
EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY continued to engage in consolidation below 115.65 short term top last week and outlook remains unchanged. Another might be seen as such consolidations continue but downside is expected to be contained by 111.44 support and bring rally resumption. Break of 115.65 will target 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32 next. However, break of 111.44 will argue that whole rebound from 105.42 might be over and turn focus back to this low instead.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be formed at 105.42 already. Rebound from 105.42 is now expected to extend further towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 119.43). Sustained break there will indicate that whole long term fall from 169.96 is finished too and will target 139.21 resistance and above. However, note that failure below the 55 weeks EMA will argue that long term down trend from 169.96 is still in progress for 100 psychological level and below before completion.
In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. But EUR/JPY would be contained above 88.96 key support level. We'll hold on to this view unless fall from 169.96 shows sign of acceleration.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 113.63
Historical Levels up to date: 124.25, 126.50, 130.90, 133.25, 135.65, 138.00, 140.00, 151.95, 156.00, 156.85, 164.00
USD/CAD
USD/CAD dived further to as low as 0.9979 last week but has somewhat drew strong support from parity and recovered. Also, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral first this week. Break of 1.0232 resistance will indicate that fall from 1.0671 has finished and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0675 resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9979 and sustained trading below parity will target a test on 0.9929 low next.
In the bigger picture, while we'd still prefer to see strong support around parity to finish off the fall from 1.0671 and consolidation from 1.0851. Break of 1.0232 resistance will reaffirm the view that 0.9929 is the medium term bottom and rise from there is not finished. Further break of 1.0671 should target another high above 1.0851. However, Sustained trading below parity will argue that 0.9929 is not yet the bottom and fall from 1.3063 could still be in progress for 2007 low of 0.9056. and fall from 1.3063 could still be in progress for 2007 low of 0.9056.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 1.0108
Historical Levels up to date: 0.9805, 1.0060, 1.0270, 1.0470, 1.1025, 1.1140, 1.1270, 1.0160, 1.1940, 1.2040, 1.2225, 1.2475
AUD/USD
AUD/USD rose further to as high as 0.9998 last week, just shy of parity, before making a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we might seen some sideway consolidations first. But after all, there is no sign of topping as long as 0.9768 support holds. Further rally is still expected to continue to 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021. Break will see further rise to medium term projection level at 1.0165. Though, break of 0.9768 will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.6008 is still in progress and has resumed the longer term up trend. In any case, outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9220 resistance turned support holds. Current rally should extend towards 61.8% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.0165 next.
In the longer term picture, long term up trend from 0.4773 should have resumed. We're not looking at next long term target of 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084.
Pips Mover's Weekly Pivot Point for this week: 0.9881
Historical Levels up to date: 0.7695, 0.7870, 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8200, 0.8350, 0.8670
